So You’re Telling Me Skydance Has a Chance? | A Column by Michael Beach

Editor's Note

State of the Screens is a syndicated column by Michael Beach — author of Screen Wars and one of the sharpest thought leaders and founders in streaming and TV advertising. This piece maps the new profit scoreboard in streaming following Paramount's mega-merger with Warner Bros. Discovery: while the combined entity commands 97 million U.S. subscriptions, severe subscriber overlap, legacy linear debt, and Netflix's $4.2 billion profit engine prove that counting subs is yesterday's metric—and cash flow is the only game in town.

Paramount closed its Warner Bros. Discovery deal last month. The new company, Skydance, now ranks ahead of Netflix in U.S. streaming subscriptions.

So you’re telling me there’s a chance?

Yes, but growing profit is the new scoreboard, and Netflix is the clear leader.

Let's break it down into 4 big questions:
1) Who has the most subscriptions?
2) Who's actually making money?
3) How did ad tiers change the game?
4) Can Skydance catch Netflix?

Who has the most subscriptions?

Streaming subscriptions (U.S.)(Kagan):
1) Disney - 143.6M
2) Paramount + WarnerBros. Discovery - 97.1M
3) Netflix - 86.1M
4) Peacock - 48.0M
5) Apple TV - 15.1M

Keep in mind: Disney and Skydance add up several apps. A home with the Disney bundle counts three times. Netflix is the largest single service.

Fastest growth (YoY):
1) Peacock - ↑ 17%
2) Paramount + WarnerBros. Discovery - ↑ 12%
3) Disney - ↑ 9%
4) Netflix - ↑ 5%
5) Apple TV - ↑ 0.2%

Total streaming subscriptions (Kagan):
1) 2011- 26M
2) 2016- 117M (↑ 356%)
3) 2021- 388M (↑ 232%)
4) 2026- 492M (↑ 27%)

As we discussed last week, the overall streaming subscription market is showing a similar trend. The land grab is over.

% change since 2021:
1) Total subscriptions - ↑ 27%
2) Households with a streaming subscription - ↑ 15%
3) Subscriptions/Household - ↑ 10%

Skydance’s 97M is lower than it looks because most Max subscribers already have Paramount+ (59%), and over half of Paramount+ subscribers already have Max (54%). Netflix doesn’t have that problem: it’s the service nearly everyone keeps, no matter what else they subscribe to.

Who's actually making money?

Streaming profits (profit margin)(Owl&Co):
1) Netflix - $4.2B (34%)
2) YouTube - $2.4B (14%)
3) Paramount + WarnerBros. Discovery - $900M (17%)
4) Amazon - $800M (7%)
5) Disney - $700M (9%)
6) Peacock - $200M (11%)

Bottom line: Netflix earned 6X Disney's streaming profit.

How did ad tiers change the game?

Total streaming revenue (Kagan):
1) 2010 - $810M
2) 2015 - $7B (↑ 762%)
3) 2020 - $26B (↑ 279%)
4) 2025 - $63B (↑ 138%)
5) 2030P - $91B (↑ 44%)

Ad share of total revenue:
1) 2010 - 1%
2) 2015 - 9%
3) 2020 - 9%
4) 2025 - 15%
5) 2030P - 20%

U.S. ad-supported subscribers (Activate):
1) Disney - 55M (30%)
2) Prime Video - 49M (27%)
3) Peacock - 34M (19%)
4) Paramount+ & HBO Max - 26M (14%)
5) Netflix - 17M (9%)

Why it matters: When you can't add homes, you earn more per home. Ads are the second paycheck.

Between the lines: Netflix has the smallest ad audience here. That's room to grow.

Can Skydance catch Netflix?

Merging Paramount and WarnerBros. Discovery into a single company (Skydance) will certainly create scale, but it will face several challenges in catching Netflix.

Skydance challenges:
1) Shrinking linear business
2) Massive debt
3) Low streaming attention
4) Most ad money still from linear

This Owl&Co chart highlights the challenge for linear natives: competing with Netflix is tough when linear still drives their economics.

The new combination accounts for 7% of streaming time, ranking them sixth.

Why Subscribe

Because the newly merged Skydance commands 97 million U.S. streaming subscriptions while Netflix still extracts $4.2 billion in pure profit — and the massive gap between raw subscriber counts and actual bottom-line cash flow is where the streaming wars are quietly being won and lost.

Every week, State of the Screens tracks how documented audience behavior becomes enterprise value: the contracts, the balance sheets built on them, and the layer underneath that finance has not learned to read. If you allocate capital, this is where attention-backed credit shows its shape before the first deal prints. If you operate in media, this is where the difference between the visit and the habit gets priced before your next negotiation. If you build audiences, this is the market learning what the relationship you hold is actually worth.