Advertisers are shifting holiday marketing campaigns into early fall, a trend dubbed "holiday creep," as they chase financially-strained consumers who are starting their shopping earlier to spread out costs. The move is a direct reaction to a fundamental change in consumer behavior, backed by data from a new Simpli.fi report showing a massive spike in early ad spending.
Anxious wallets, early carts: The trend stems from shoppers trying to blunt the financial hit of the season—a reaction to persistent cost-of-living worries. This has fueled a 24-fold spike in early holiday ad spending compared to previous peaks, as brands race to meet consumers where they are.
Awareness now, conversions later: The strategy isn't about spending more money overall; rather, advertisers are making their existing funds last over a longer season. This means pushing awareness campaigns on channels like TV and YouTube into September and October, while holding back the big money for conversion-focused channels like search for the peak November shopping frenzy.
From couch to cart: The early spending push is also accelerating the adoption of channels like Connected TV (CTV). Streaming has created a "couch to cart" phenomenon, where shoppable ads with QR codes drive immediate purchases, with these direct-response ad interactions jumping by more than 50% over the last year.
While consumer sentiment surveys paint a gloomy picture of the economy, actual spending data has remained surprisingly resilient. People may say they're cutting back, but their actions at the checkout counter tell a different story. Beyond the shift in holiday timing, the entire global ad market is showing surprising strength. Projections for 2025 have been revised upward to $1.17 trillion, partly fueled by a "pre-tariff windfall" of activity and a boom on social platforms.
